AI is mega theme to power global expansion through 2026

Artificial intelligence (AI) spending will keep the US and the global economy out of recession next year and remain the single biggest investment story of 2026.“AI investment is rewriting the economic outlook,” said Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory deVere Group.

“The sheer scale of spending on data centres, advanced chips and supporting infrastructure is strong enough to counter slower job growth and softer consumer demand.“It’ll keep the US and the global economy growing through 2026, we believe.”

Recent US data showed how decisive the trend has become. Remove tech-driven investment and output earlier this year would have been close to contraction.Instead, gross domestic product (GDP) continues to expand even as payroll gains ease.“AI projects are capital-heavy but need far fewer workers,” Green explained.“A company like Nvidia employs roughly 36,000 people yet generates trillions in market value and drives trade flows across Asia, Europe and the US.”

Global figures reinforce the prediction. Industry analysts expected AI infrastructure spending to rise more than 30% annually, fuelling record chip exports from Taiwan and South Korea and unprecedented order books for Europe’s ASML.

This momentum is sustaining global trade at a time when traditional manufacturing is mixed. Semiconductor shipments from Taiwan alone jumped by double digits this year, while South Korea’s chip exports have surged back to pre-2022 highs.

Energy groups report a parallel boom in demand for power and cooling systems to keep pace with the buildout of hyperscale data centres.“Markets have never seen a single tech sector with this much macro impact. AI investment is not a niche story; it’s the backbone of worldwide growth for the next year and beyond,” he said.He pointed to three forces behind the continued surge: relentless competition among US tech giants to build computing power, government incentives from Washington to Tokyo, and insatiable demand for the chips that underpin machine learning and generative AI.

“Every major economy wants a stake in the AI build-out. This guarantees another year of massive investment," he added. Governments are fuelling the “AI arms race.”

In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act have unlocked billions in subsidies for semiconductor capacity and energy infrastructure. The European Union has committed record funding for next-generation fabrication plants, while Japan and South Korea are offering tax breaks and fast-track permits to secure their roles in the supply chain.

Green believes this global policy push is crucial. “The competition for technological advantage is now a core part of economic strategy,” he said. “This competition ensures that capital keeps pouring into AI.” He also highlighted the feedback loop between AI development and energy markets. Data-centre electricity use in the US is forecast to double by 2030, prompting utilities to expand grids and renewable capacity.

“The AI buildout drives not just chips and software but heavy investment in power, metals and construction. It creates a multi-layered growth engine that touches every sector,” Green noted. Investors who treat AI as a short-term theme risk missing a structural shift.

“Currencies, equities, commodities and bonds will all be shaped by this wave,” he said. “The smartest strategies for 2026 will start with the recognition that AI is the global growth engine.” Energy supply and regulatory hurdles may eventually slow the pace, but not soon enough to derail the expansion.

“Concerns about power demand or oversight are real, but they will not outweigh the profitability case in 2026. Capital will keep chasing AI because the potential returns are extraordinary,” Green predicted. He expected the impact to extend far beyond technology shares.

“Shipping, logistics, rare earth mining, construction materials—every link in the chain benefits,” he said. “This is why global trade remains resilient even when traditional industrial production wavers.”

Green concluded, “Next year, we believe, will not bring a US or worldwide recession. AI investment ensures ongoing expansion, redefining how economies grow and how markets move. It’s the dominant investment theme of 2026 and the clearest macro force of the coming decade.”

Re-disseminated by  Wealth and Society