Emirates NBD: AI drives growth in 2026 investment outlook

Emirates NBD urges investors to focus on disciplined, diversified strategies as artificial intelligence (AI) drives growth amid rising geopolitical, fiscal and market uncertainties.

Emirates NBD’s Global Investment Outlook 2026, titled “Eyes Wide Open”, highlights AI as a defining force reshaping global growth. The outlook highlights long-term opportunities while acknowledging elevated risks, shaping considerations for investors across the UAE, the wider Middle East and global markets.

The annual Global Investment Outlook is an advisory blueprint covering investment opportunities, key global economic indicators and in-depth financial market insights, based on which Emirates NBD’s team of advisors, strategists and analysts make recommendations on financial transactions and investments to the bank’s qualified clients.

Positive but selective outlook for 2026

In an environment increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, rising debt levels and fiscal pressures, Maurice Gravier, group chief investment officer, wealth management at Emirates NBD advises investors to move away from broad strategies and adopt a more selective, valuation-aware approach.

While highlighting the macro themes of gold, AI and emerging markets, Gravier emphasised that portfolio construction and diversification are advised, he expressed the importance of finding the right opportunities below the headline asset allocation with granular analysis.

He said, “First, portfolio construction and risk management are paramount. We have reshuffled our strategic asset allocation to ensure portfolios always point to the long-term destination quintessential to wealth management. It is built to protect capital over defined horizons (3, 5 and 7 years) and is diversified enough to provide options to act upon adverse events.”

AI emerges as major catalyst driving productivity gains

AI stands out as a key driver of long-term growth in the 2026 Outlook, already delivering tangible productivity gains across a wide range of sectors.

“AI is no longer just a US mega-cap story, it is increasingly a global productivity story, AI adoption is now happening across all sectors,” said Nawaf AlNaqbi, head of equity strategy at Emirates NBD.

From automation and data analytics to decision-making and operational efficiency, AI is reshaping how companies allocate capital and compete. AI’s influence next year will come less from immediate efficiency gains and more from the scale of investment taking place. Investment spendings on data centres, power networks, advanced chips, and supporting infrastructure will be the main way AI drives economic activity, as countries and companies prepare for widespread adoption.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to attract major inflows from global technology players, with more than $40 billion invested and over 75% of the region’s existing data centre capacity. Near-term growth is supported by construction, employment and equipment demand. Over the longer term, early investment is expected to give the region a lasting advantage once AI-driven productivity gains begin to take effect.

Navigating uncertainty requires diversification and disciplined risk management

Gravier expects markets to remain sensitive to policy shifts and geopolitical developments, creating a more constrained and unpredictable investment landscape. Therefore, it stresses the importance of diversification, valuation discipline, and active risk management, arguing that portfolio resilience, rather than return maximisation alone will be key to navigating the year ahead with eyes wide open.

He added, “Everywhere we look, we see limits being tested by the combination of AI expansion with geopolitical antagonism. Fiscal and social limits immediately come to mind. Geopolitical red lines will be probed, while alliances and rivalries alike are reshaped. Financial limits, from equity valuations to government and projects funding, will also be tested, as will investors’ nerves.”

Re-disseminated by Wealth and Society