UBS says wealthy investors grow more optimistic ahead of US midterms

Wealthy US investors and business owners are increasingly optimistic about the economy ahead of the 2026 midterms, while political considerations are shaping portfolio decisions and business succession planning.

UBS’s latest Investor Watch report found that 64% of investors and 71% of business owners are highly optimistic about the US economy over the next 12 months, up from 55% and 65%, respectively, in 2024.

Business owners reported similar gains: 71% are highly optimistic about the US economy, compared with 65% in 2024, and 63% are highly optimistic about the global economy, up from 40%. Confidence in their own businesses also increased, with 87% highly optimistic about their business outlook, up from 74% two years ago.

“Investors and business owners are approaching the midterms with greater economic confidence than they had two years ago, but many are also considering what the election could mean for their portfolios,” said Bill Carroll, Head of High Net Worth Strategy, GWM US at UBS. “Thoughtful financial advice can help investors look beyond short-term political developments, evaluate potential risks and opportunities, and keep their portfolios aligned with their long-term goals.”

The economy remains the leading election issue as the midterms factor into financial decisions

The economy remains the most important election issue for both groups, with 88% of investors and 89% of business owners considering it highly important.

Healthcare, along with trade policies and tariffs, has gained importance for both groups since 2024. Among investors, 81% now consider healthcare highly important, up from 66% in 2024, while 71% say the same of trade policies and tariffs, up from 50%. Among business owners, healthcare rose to 81% from 69%, while trade policies and tariffs rose to 77% from 61%.

Investors are also considering the midterms in the context of their portfolios. 88% say their political views have at least some impact on their investment decisions, rising to 96% among Gen Z and 95% among Millennials. Among those investors, 91% are considering portfolio changes before the election, including adjusting allocations to specific sectors (49%), adding portfolio protections or hedges (44%) and investing more in the stock market (44%).

For business owners, the midterms are also influencing longer-term financial decisions. 63% worry the election could affect their exit strategy, a consideration for the nearly one-third (31%) who expect to sell, transfer or exit their business within the next five years. The financial stakes can be significant, with 53% having at least half of their wealth in their company. Still, owners remain confident: 80% believe business valuations are likely to improve over the next two years, 51% plan to invest more in their businesses and 43% plan to increase hiring.

“Business owners remain confident in their companies, but an election can introduce new considerations for those preparing to sell or transfer a business,” said James Jack, Head of the Business Owner Segment at UBS. “When so much of an owner’s personal wealth is tied to the business, there’s a lot at stake for both their future and their family’s. That’s why it’s important to have the right team of advisors in place, including a financial advisor, to help navigate key decisions and plan ahead with confidence.”

Ninety-one percent of business owners say expert financial guidance is especially important during an election year, up from 82% in 2024. Investors are seeking more guidance as well: 88% want to better understand the implications of the midterms for their portfolios, up from 78%, while 84% want more guidance than usual from their financial advisor during an election year, up from 74%.

 Re-disseminated by Wealth and Society